Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

960
FXUS61 KCLE 062340
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The evolution of ongoing showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
approaching cold front Saturday morning remains uncertain, which
continues to limit confidence in how organized the local severe
thunderstorm threat will be Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated shower/thunder chances through early Saturday, with
greater coverage of showers and storms expected to develop late
Saturday morning and afternoon. A few storms may turn severe,
particularly between 12 PM and 5 PM east of the I-71 corridor.
Potential for organized severe weather remains uncertain.

2) The next period of unsettled weather is expected Tuesday into
Wednesday, with the greatest potential for rain and perhaps more
thunderstorms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

3) Above average temperatures will continue through Tuesday
night. Temperatures will return back to near or slightly below
normal by late Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A couple subtle pushes of low-level theta-e advection are
expected through early Saturday...one pushing across Northwest
OH early this afternoon and expected to progress east-northeast
into this evening...and another expected to push east across the
area later this evening and overnight. Each may provide enough
forcing for isolated shower/thunder potential at times through
early Saturday, though the general flavor of the forecast will
be mainly dry (and quite warm/humid by early March standards!)
through the rest of today and tonight. It will be remarkably
mild tonight with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to
low 60s, outside of the chillier immediate lakeshore.

The main focus for rain and thunder potential, along with a risk
for severe weather, remains during the day Saturday along and
ahead of a cold front that will sweep through. However, the
impact of pre-frontal convection that will likely be ongoing
Saturday morning on the severe threat remains uncertain,
leading to lower confidence in that severe potential.

Guidance is in good agreement that convection will be ongoing
just to our west along a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary
ahead of an approaching cold front to start Saturday morning,
with mainly dry (and warm) weather expected to start Saturday
across the area. This activity is expected to continue east into
Northwest Ohio by later Saturday morning, likely on a weakening
trend through the late morning during the diurnal convective
minimum. By midday/early afternoon, destabilization and
gradually increasing forcing (evidenced by subtle 500mb height
falls and the approaching right-entrance quadrant of a 150kt
upper jet streak) will lead to convection increasing in coverage
and intensity along the advancing pre-frontal trough/outflow
boundary. There`s also good agreement that comparatively weaker
showers/storms will try to develop along the cold front itself,
pushing into Northwest Ohio later Saturday afternoon and
progressing east-southeast across the local area through
Saturday evening. Given all of this, am generally expecting two
rounds of convective potential to sweep east across the area
Saturday into Saturday evening with a brief lull in between.

Where the uncertainty comes in is how quickly that first/pre-
frontal round of convection moves east across the area. The
more conducive thermodynamic will exist ahead of this activity,
with weaker heating and somewhat weaker mid-level lapse rates
behind it. If this initial activity advances through faster it
will have less time to intensify and organize across our area,
keeping the greater severe threat to our southeast. A number of
12z models suggest that, lowering confidence in severe
potential locally. It is a fine line as convection will likely
start upticking by midday, so even a slightly slower trend (as
several earlier HRRR runs showed) could lead to a round of
organized convection with severe potential as far west as about
the I-71 corridor. The environment ahead of the pre-frontal
trough is expected to feature modest (500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE)
instability, somewhat steep (~6.5C/km) mid-level lapse rates,
reasonably well-mixed low-levels (sfc-3km lapse rates
~8.0C/km), and moderate effective bulk shear (~40-45kt). Quickly
increasing but largely unidirectional low-level wind profiles
should supply ~40kt of 0-3km shear and 150-200 m2/s2 of
effective SRH. The uncapped instability, increasing forcing, and
deep-layer shear largely paralleling the surface boundaries
argue for a mainly messy/linear storm mode, with short line
segments likely favored after what may be a brief, early window
of semi-discrete activity. This adds up to potential for an
organized damaging wind threat with more robust line segments,
with a non-zero (but not incredibly high) tornado risk given
sufficient low-level shear for mesovort development. There may
be some hail, especially with any more discrete cells, though
that`s more of a secondary threat. Given lingering uncertainty,
the Day 2 SPC Convective Outlook remains unchanged with a
Slight Risk (level 2/5, driven by damaging wind potential)
primarily east of the I-71 corridor...the location of ongoing
convection early Saturday and how quickly it moves east across
the area will be critical to the overall severe threat.

Any convection that spreads in from the west during the late
afternoon/early evening along the cold front itself will be in a
very marginal thermodynamic environment with weak/skinny
instability profiles. However, strong forcing and deep-layer
shear could allow for at least an isolated severe threat late
Saturday afternoon and early evening with any cold frontal
convection. The potential for stronger convection on the cold
front is generally low, but could increase a bit if the first
round exits quicker. A Marginal Risk (level 1/5) covers our
western counties between both potential rounds of convection.

Area average QPF through Saturday evening is mainly modest,
generally in the 0.10-0.40" range (highest southeast). Locally
1.00-2.00" may occur if any parts of the area see multiple
storms or brief training convection, though those higher amounts
would be the exception rather than the rule. Shower and storm
potential exits to the southeast Saturday night with the cold
front. Highs will surge into the upper 60s/lower 70s on Saturday
(warmer if the initial round of convection holds off slightly
longer). Lows Saturday night return to the 40s behind the front.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Dry weather is favored for Sunday and Monday. An amplifying
trough is expected to approach the region on Wednesday and move
through Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture return begins on
Tuesday amid deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the
incoming trough. A developing low pressure and trailing cold
front are expected to cross late Tuesday night or Wednesday.
Some shower/thunder potential is possible Tuesday as warmer and
more humid air returns, though the greatest coverage is likely
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Trends in QPF and the timing of
the front will be monitored for flooding/severe related hazards.
At the least, there`s decent potential for a widespread
wetting/beneficial rain. Guidance currently has the front
progressing through earlier in the day Wednesday which would
limit any severe threat, though given that`s still several days
out trends in the timing of the front remain possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures will largely be stuck in the 50s on Sunday behind
this weekend`s cold front, rebounding into the 60s to perhaps
low 70s for highs on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday will likely
be a transition day as the cold front moves through, with highs
on Thursday near or a bit below normal, possibly staying in the
30s across parts of the area. Friday likely sees temperatures
trend back up, though that appears to be short-lived with
ensembles suggesting a pattern change around mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
All terminals across the region are currently VFR and should
continue through the overnight hours. A strong LLJ will move
into the region tonight as low pressure moves in the Great
Lakes. As an inversion sets up tonight, this LLJ will create
LLWS starting before midnight and persisting through the mid
morning when boundary layer mixing starts with daytime heating.
Winds will begin gusting as well up to 30-35 knots out of the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. There will be some
convection as well entering the western terminals around 15Z and
exiting past the eastern terminals by 20Z. The cold front is
expected to move into the region around 22Z and winds will shift
to be out of the west to northwest behind. Only have the wind
shift for KTOL and KCLE as the front will not reach other
terminals by the end of this TAF period. In between the
convection and front there will likely be showery rain across
the region that could bring vis down to non-VFR.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in low ceilings behind the cold front
on Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Mobile pack ice continues to dominate Lake Erie with warmer
temperatures and higher dewpoints aiding in further melting. Patchy
dense fog remains an issue into this evening and possibly again
during the overnight. Wave heights limited by the aforementioned
mobile pack ice, which will shift around with winds increasing out
of the SSW tonight into Saturday 20-35kts. Thunderstorms possible
Saturday as a cold front works its way across Lake Erie later in the
day. Winds become westerly 10-20kts Saturday night, returning to
southwesterly Monday through Tuesday 15-25kts.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142>146-
     162>166.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sullivan
AVIATION...23
MARINE...26